Why 2019 sets a dangerous precedent for the fight against terrorism: Exposes India’s inability to defend against terrorism and unveils a new hostile America and the world!

In the aftermath of terror attack in Kashmir that killed 40 Indian CRPF soldiers, anger against Pakistan has skyrocketed and nation under a surge of patriotism is busy seeking revenge against the unruly neighbouring country. Quite rightly too as the video released by the slain suicide bomber claimed allegiance to Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan based terrorist group active in Kashmir.

It is an SOP (standard operating procedure) in the aftermath of all terror attacks in Kashmir to attribute Pakistan based on some evidence followed by Pakistan's vehement denial and attacking India for its lack of evidence however strong the evidence India has been able to corroborate.

Story so far

There are many versions about why India has failed in getting a grip on the volatile situation in J&K with all interested parties claiming its version to be correct. One majoritarian view from the Indian side has also been that due to the political compulsions in northern state, leaders have gone soft on anti-social and pro Pakistan elements much to the dissent of not only rest of India but the very residents of J&K who have for long wanted peace and stability.

Things however looked promising under the late prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee but between all things good and bad like the Lahore Summit and Kargil War it too reached nowhere. Situation remained intense until 2014 when the newly elected government of prime minister Narendra Modi in no uncertain words announced India’s firmness and yet showed unimaginable bonhomie with his then Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. It did not last long enough and regime change meant uncertainty yet again. In the meantime though the Modi government demonstrated it can deal with Pakistan blow by blow with most noted being the surgical strikes across the border.

Fight against terrorism backed by Pakistan has never been a small beast that could be tamed with the men in uniforms alone or with the help from few diplomatic interventions. Modi government has tried few things up its sleeve to isolate Pakistan and to some extent succeeded in cutting infamous aid and hit it with diplomatic isolation on many subjects including the likes of FATF blacklisting.

Weak link in the fight

On a theoretical level India though has inched a step further under Modi, a much-desired change compared to his predecessor, on ground things have not changed significantly with biggest jolt coming from the Pulwama attack. Despite India has been trying to ascertain its rights over J&K by three ponged measures of strengthen good terms, international diplomacy and the use of hard power wherever required, it has not meant much and India has failed in fulfilling need of the hour which is to curtail terrorism and save precious lives of civilians and men in uniform.

A price too high for blind obedience

Primary reason for the ineffectiveness in its strategy for controlling terrorism are India’s archaic SOPs and rule books written and probably never reviewed along with the inefficiency in acting on precious intel. On knowing that over 2500 soldiers were carried together in dozens of vehicles just shows us the vulnerability and shocks us beyond belief. Even seeing videos of US army convoys moving through cities in Iraq and other countries was more than enough for amateurs like us to know India was doing it all wrong till now. Thus, this begs the question are our operation guidelines as weak and don’t they deserve an immediate review?

Friendly ghosts of America and Saudi Arabia

For all the brownie points Indian government received for blocking funding to Pakistan and many other international efforts, US $20 bn aid by Saudi Arabia and US $6 bn assistance by IMF are a big slap on our face and just tells us momentum can shift in the most unwanted of times. Though credit should be given to new prime minister of Pakistan Imran Khan for his diplomacy, India should watch out for whom it calls friends in its war on terror.
Saudi Arabia is long known for its ideological support to jihadist militancy. Time and again many have brought it into the public domain with the most noted coming from Hilary Clinton’s cables. Pakistan has been known for diverting its international aid received to other causes that have never been known to benefit India and yet US $20 bn funding from Saudi Arabia should not come as a surprise at all.

Curious case though is of IMF as America has approximately 17% voting rights in IMF's executive board and its quota of contribution to IMF’s funds too being around 16%, highest by any member nation. Now combing this with fact that its head quarters in the backyard of Capitol Building (read White House) just makes the matter even more interesting. It is hard to imagine America could not have influenced IMF against its mega funding to Pakistan or was it in its interest to make up for the aid cut it introduced earlier mostly as optics. What has America got to earn from this funding? Well the same old promise of not targeting America and being a partner in sharing intelligence with it.

Indian foreign office must wake up to this fact sooner than later and not fall prey to niceties of momentary international diplomacy victories as games at such levels are currently not played in the known dimensions. House of Cards is indeed at PLAY!